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February U.S. Employment, January Trade
Strong Jobs Data Confirms Economic Momentum February Payroll Employment increased by a strong 242,000 jobs, well above consensus expectations. The Unemployment Rate for February was unchanged at 4.9...
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February Retail Sales, Producer Prices
Auto Sales Top Out as Energy Prices Bottom Out February Retail Sales declined by 0.1 percent, and January was revised down to -0.4 percent. Ex-auto Retail Sales also dipped by 0.1 percent as categories...
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February Residential Construction, Consumer Prices, Industrial Production
Houses Started, Manufacturing Produced, Oil Up, Fed on Hold February Housing Starts increased by 5.2 percent to a 1,178,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction decreased by 3.1...
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February Income and Spending
Modest Income Growth Tempered by Declining Corporate Profits U.S. Personal Income increased by 0.2 percent in February, despite strong job growth. Real disposable income gained 0.3 percent for the...
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March ADP Jobs, January Home Prices, Yellen Speech
Jobs Growth and House Prices Support U.S. Households, Yellen Dials Back Expectations The February ADP Employment Report showed a gain of 200,000 private-sector jobs. The January Case-Shiller U.S....
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March U.S. Employment
Another Solid Jobs Report. No Fooling! March Payroll Employment increased by a solid 215,000 jobs, just above expectations. The Unemployment Rate for March ticked up to 5.0 percent with strong recent...
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March ISM Non-MF, February Trade and JOLTS
Trade Expected to Drag on Q1 GDP, Service Sector and Labor Data Positive The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March increased to 54.5 percent. The U.S. International Trade Gap widened in February to...
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March Retail Sales, Producer Prices, February Inventories
Headline Numbers Weak, But Details Mixed in Today’s Economic Data March Retail Sales declined by 0.3 percent, as auto sales fell. Ex-auto Retail Sales increased by 0.2 percent, supported by building...
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March Leading Indicators, Existing Home Sales, April UI Claims, ECB/FOMC
Indicators Positive but Fed not Likely to Respond The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for March increased by 0.2 percent. Existing Home Sales for March increased by 5.1 percent to a 5.33...
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2016Q1 GDP, April UI Claims, FOMC
Weak First Quarter GDP Dragged Down by Business Investment, Inventories, Trade, Defense Real Gross Domestic Product for 2016Q1 increased at a weak 0.5 percent annual rate. Initial Claims for...
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April ADP Jobs, ISM Non-MF, Auto Sales, March International Trade
Job Growth Eases, Service Sector Up, Autos Back on Track, Trade Gap Narrows The April ADP Employment Report showed a less-than-expected gain of 156,000 private-sector jobs. The ISM Non-Manufacturing...
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April U.S. Employment
Less-Than-Expected, Not Terrible, Quirky April Payroll Employment increased by a less-than-expected 160,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate for April was unchanged at 5.0 percent. Average Hourly Earnings...
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May ADP Jobs, UI Claims, ISM MF, Auto Sales
Data Shows Better, But Not Great Q2, Maybe Not Enough for Fed in June The May ADP Employment Report showed a gain of 173,000 private-sector jobs. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance at the end of...
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May U.S. Employment, April International Trade
Poor May Jobs Report Reduces Likelihood of June 15 Fed Rate Hike May Payroll Employment increased by just 38,000 jobs, the lowest since September 2010. The Unemployment Rate for May fell to 4.7 percent...
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May Retail Sales, NFIB Survey, Import Prices, April Inventories
Second Month of Solid Sales Supported by Gasoline May Retail Sales increased by 0.5 percent, after gaining 1.3 percent in April. Ex-auto Retail Sales improved by 0.4 percent, supported by gasoline...
View ArticleMay Consumer Prices, June UI Claims, Fed Policy, BREXIT
Warming Inflation, but Not Yet Hot, Warming BREXIT Too The May Consumer Price Index increased by 0.2 percent with gains in energy prices. The May Core CPI also gained 0.2 percent, and was up 2.2...
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The World has Changed The consequences of BREXIT will be felt over years. The odds of a fed funds rate hike this year are significantly lower because of BREXIT. In a stunning rebuke to...
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May Income and Spending, April Case-Shiller HPI
Another Solid Spending Report Supports Expectations of Stronger Q2 GDP U.S. Personal Income increased by 0.2 percent in May. After inflation and taxes, Real Disposable Income gained 0.1 percent for...
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June ISM Non-NMF, Auto Sales, May International Trade
Service Sector Gains Momentum at Mid-Year, June Employment Indicators Positive The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June increased to 56.5 percent. The U.S. International Trade Gap widened in May to...
View ArticleJune ADP Jobs, Challenger Job Cuts, July UI Claims, Fed Minutes
Multiple Data Sources Point to Steady June Job Creation after May Miss The June ADP Employment Report showed a gain of 172,000 private-sector jobs. The June Challenger Job Cuts Report showed a slight...
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June Producer Prices, July UI Claims, Global Monetary Policy
Energy Boosts Wholesale Inflation, Bank of England Pauses, Fed Will Too The June Producer Price Index increased by 0.5 percent with gains in energy prices. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance...
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June Retail Sales, Consumer Prices, Industrial Production
Strong Consumer Spending Supported Q2 GDP June Retail Sales increased by 0.6 percent, adding to expectations for a rebound in Q2 GDP growth. The Consumer price Index for June gained 0.2 percent, as...
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June Residential Construction, July Homebuilders Survey
Starts Improve in June, But Still Range Bound June Housing Starts increased by 4.8 percent to a 1,189,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction ticked up by 1.5 percent to a...
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June Leading Indicators, Existing Home Sales, July UI Claims, Central Banks
“Encouraging Market Resilience” The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for June increased by 0.3 percent. Existing Home Sales for June increased by 1.1 percent to a 5.57 million unit annual...
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Article 7
Tepid Data Will Not Motivate the Fed to Raise Interest Rates Tomorrow The Consumer Confidence Index ticked down slightly in July from 97.4 to 97.3. New Home Sales for June increased by 3.5 percent to a...
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2016Q2 GDP, July UI Claims, Central Bank Recap
Real Gross Domestic Product for 2016Q2 increased at a modest 1.2 percent annual rate. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance increased by 14,000 to 266,000 for the week ending July 23. The Federal...
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July ISM Manufacturing, June Construction Spending
The ISM Manufacturing Index for July dipped to a still-expansive 52.6 percent. Construction Spending decreased by 0.6 percent in June on weaker manufacturing-related construction. The ISM...
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July Consumer Prices, Housing Starts, Industrial Production
Lower Oil Prices Cool Inflation Indicators The July Consumer Price Index was unchanged as energy prices dropped. The July Core CPI increased by 0.1 percent, and was up 2.2 percent over the previous 12...
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July New and Existing Home Sales
Breakout Month for New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales Slump Existing Home Sales decreased by 3.2 percent in July to a 5.39 million unit annual rate. New Home Sales for July surged by 12.4 percent to a...
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July Income and Spending
Consumers Are Doing Their Part, A Good Start to Q3 U.S. Personal Income increased by 0.4 percent in July. After inflation and taxes, Real Disposable Income also gained 0.4 percent for the month....
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August ADP Jobs, Case-Shiller House Prices
Moderate Job Gains for August May not be Enough for a September Fed Rate Hike The August ADP Employment Report showed a gain of 177,000 private-sector jobs for the month. The Case-Shiller U.S. National...
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August U.S. Employment, July International Trade
Job Growth Weaker Than Expected, Odds of September Fed Funds Rate Hike Diminish Payroll Employment increased by 151,000 jobs in August, stepping down from strong gains in June/July. The Unemployment...
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August Leading Indicators, Existing Home Sales, September UI Claims
Muddling Along The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for August decreased by 0.2 percent. Existing Home Sales for August decreased by 0.9 percent to a 5.33 million unit annual rate. Initial...
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August New Home Sales
Sales Dip in August but Trend Looks Good New Home Sales decreased by 7.6 percent in August to a 609,000 unit annual rate. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey improved in September. The worst may be...
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September ISM Manufacturing, August Construction Spending
Firmer Manufacturing Data, Maybe The ISM Manufacturing Index for September increased to an expansive 51.5 percent. Construction Spending decreased by 0.7 percent in August with broad-based declines....
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September U.S. Employment
Mildly Disappointing Data Will Quickly Lose Relevancy Payroll Employment increased by 156,000 jobs in September, continuing a slight downward trend. The Unemployment Rate for September ticked up to...
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September Consumer Prices, Industrial Production, October NAHB Survey
Higher Energy Prices Warm Up the CPI The September Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3 percent as energy prices climbed. The September Core CPI increased by 0.1 percent, and was up 2.2 percent over...
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September Residential Construction
Starts Stop, Permits Perk Up September Housing Starts unexpectedly fell by 9.0 percent to a 1,047,000 unit annual rate. Permits for new residential construction gained 6.3 percent to a 1,225,000 unit...
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2016Q3 GDP, Sept. Durable Goods Orders, Oct. UI Claims
Q3 GDP Bounces Back on Inventory Build and Exports Real Gross Domestic Product for 2016Q3 increased at a moderate 2.9 percent annual rate. New Orders for Durable Goods were essentially unchanged,...
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September Income and Spending, Chicago PMI
No Tricks in the Income and Spending Report, Just Treats U.S. Personal Income increased by 0.3 percent in September. After inflation and taxes, Real Disposable Income was unchanged for the second month...
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October ISM Indexes, ADP Jobs, UI Claims, Central Banks
Fed Hints at December Rate Hike The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for October eased to a still-positive 54.8. The ISM Manufacturing Index for October increased to 51.9, showing more momentum. According...
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October U.S. Employment, September International Trade
No Surprises Keeps the Fed on Track for a December 14 Rate Hike Payroll Employment increased by 161,000 jobs in October, dampened by Hurricane Matthew. The Unemployment Rate for October eased back to...
View ArticleThe Trump Presidency and the U.S. Economy
Expect Change, but Mind the Gap(s) Donald J. Trump won the presidential election with 290 electoral votes to Clinton’s 228. Trump received 47.3 percent of the popular vote to Clinton’s 47.8 percent....
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October Retail Sales, NY Fed
Consumers Bought Cars, Drove Them October Retail Sales increased by 0.8 percent, supported by autos and gasoline. Ex-auto Retail Sales also increased by 0.8 percent. Retail sales were solid in October,...
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October Industrial Production, Producer Prices
Production Stall Continues as Utility Output Falls, Producer Prices Flat Industrial Production for October was unchanged as utility output fell. The Producer Price Index for final demand was also...
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November ISM-MF Index, UI Claims, October Construction Spending
The ISM Manufacturing Index for November increased to 53.2 percent, showing improving conditions. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance increased by 17,000, to 268,000 for the week ending Nov. 26....
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November U.S. Employment
Positive Jobs Report Sets the Stage for December 14 Rate Hike Payroll Employment increased by 178,000 jobs in November. The Unemployment Rate for November dropped to 4.6 percent. Average Hourly...
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November Consumer Prices, Dec. UI Claims, NY Fed, BOE
No Surprises from Today’s Data as We Wind Down Economics Publications for the Year The November Consumer Price Index increased by 0.2 percent, boosted by energy prices. Core CPI also increased by 0.2...
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December ADP Jobs, ISM-Non MF, UI Claims, Auto Sales
Positive Data at Year-End Shows Momentum Heading into 2017. The Curse of Q1? The December ADP Employment Report showed a gain of 153,000 private-sector jobs for the month. The ISM Non-Manufacturing...
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December U.S. Employment
Middling Jobs Report Leaves Fed Expectations Unchanged Payroll Employment increased by 156,000 jobs in December, a little below expectations. The Unemployment Rate for December increased...
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